汶川县绵虒镇板子沟“8·20”大型泥石流堵河特征及危害性预测     

王东伟  游勇  李道凌  柳金峰  孙昊  吕小波  王壮 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2022,33(1):58-66

汶川地震后,板子沟曾发生过多次大规模泥石流,尤其是2019年“8·20”泥石流对沟口的道路桥梁以及村寨造成了严重的破坏,将主河道向对岸严重挤压,今后仍存在较大堵河的风险。文章在野外调查以及对泥石流基本特征和形成条件综合分析的基础上,分析了堵河特征,计算了不同频率下泥石流的堵河参数,并预测了各频率下溃决洪水对绵虒镇可能产生的影响。计算结果表明,频率为2％、5％和10％的泥石流造成岷江堵塞的可能性较小,假设发生堵河事件,绵虒镇也不会受到溃坝洪水的危害。频率为1％的泥石流很可能造成主河堵塞。体积约57.38×104 m3的泥石流物质可以到达岷江,形成高度约为51.61 m的堰塞坝。在主河洪水的作用下,堰塞坝发生溃坝,溃坝洪水的峰值流量为5 935.49 m3/s,到达绵虒镇后降至2 312.25 m3/s。由于相应的洪水深度（4.00 m）大于防护堤的高度（3.50 m）,因此溃坝洪水很可能会对绵虒镇防护堤附近民房造成破坏。为今后大型泥石流堵河特征的分析,以及溃决洪水对下游城镇可能造成的影响提供了参考。  相似文献   

基于SWMM-CCHE2D耦合模型的海绵城市内涝管控效果评价     

房亚军  于川淇  金鑫 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2022,52(2):582-591

为了解决暴雨导致的城市内涝,为应急管理提供技术支撑,考虑城市暴雨过程及海绵地表特性,结合城市水文学及水力学原理和芝加哥雨型,建立了SWMM-CCHE2D耦合模型。结合高精度地形数据和降雨、径流实时监测数据,采用SWMM雨洪模型模拟暴雨条件下海绵城市的产流,耦合高精度的二维水动力模型CCHE2D模拟相应的内涝情况。结果表明：暴雨条件下通州海绵区的产汇流具有缓慢下渗和汇流的特性,主要海绵措施的加入对径流削减率会有9.0%~40.6%不同程度的提高,从而减缓内涝,其中,对5年一遇暴雨的效果最显著;在100年一遇暴雨下设计的各种海绵措施中,生物滞留带对径流削减率的提高程度最明显,高达28.4%,透水铺装和绿地也具有较好的效果。  相似文献   

Effect of growing watershed imperviousness on hydrograph parameters and peak discharge     

Huang‐jia Huang  Shin‐jen Cheng  Jet‐chau Wen  Ju‐huang Lee 《水文研究》2008,22(13):2075-2085

An increasing impervious area is quickly extending over the Wu‐Tu watershed due to the endless demands of the people. Generally, impervious paving is a major result of urbanization and more recently has had the potential to produce more enormous flood disasters than those of the past. In this study, 40 available rainfall–runoff events were chosen to calibrate the applicable parameters of the models and to determine the relationships between the impervious surfaces and the calibrated parameters. Model inputs came from the outcomes of the block kriging method and the non‐linear programming method. In the optimal process, the shuffled complex evolution method and three criteria were applied to compare the observed and simulated hydrographs. The tendencies of the variations of the parameters with their corresponding imperviousness were established through regression analysis. Ten cases were used to examine the established equations of the parameters and impervious covers. Finally, the design flood routines of various return periods were furnished through use of approaches containing a design storm, block kriging, the SCS model, and a rainfall‐runoff model with established functional relationships. These simulated flood hydrographs were used to compare and understand the past, present, and future hydrological conditions of the watershed studied. In the research results, the time to peak of flood hydrographs for various storms was diminished approximately from 11 h to 6 h in different decrements, whereas peak flow increased respectively from 127 m³ s^?1 to 629 m³ s^?1 for different storm intensities. In addition, this study provides a design diagram for the peak flow ratio to help engineers and designers to construct hydraulic structures efficiently and prevent possible damage to human life and property. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On the prediction of the Toce alpine basin floods with distributed hydrologic models     

Nicola Montaldo  Giovanni Ravazzani  Marco Mancini 《水文研究》2007,21(5):608-621

With the objective of improving flood predictions, in recent years sophisticated continuous hydrologic models that include complex land‐surface sub‐models have been developed. This has produced a significant increase in parameterization; consequently, applications of distributed models to ungauged basins lacking specific data from field campaigns may become redundant. The objective of this paper is to produce a parsimonious and robust distributed hydrologic model for flood predictions in Italian alpine basins. Application is made to the Toce basin (area 1534 km²). The Toce basin was a case study of the RAPHAEL European Union research project, during which a comprehensive set of hydrologic, meteorological and physiographic data were collected, including the hydrologic analysis of the 1996–1997 period. Two major floods occurred during this period. We compare the FEST04 event model (which computes rainfall abstraction and antecedent soil moisture conditions through the simple Soil Conservation Service curve number method) and two continuous hydrologic models, SDM and TDM (which differ in soil water balance scheme, and base flow and runoff generation computations). The simple FEST04 event model demonstrated good performance in the prediction of the 1997 flood, but shows limits in the prediction of the long and moderate 1996 flood. More robust predictions are obtained with the parsimonious SDM continuous hydrologic model, which uses a simple one‐layer soil water balance model and an infiltration excess mechanism for runoff generation, and demonstrates good performance in both long‐term runoff modelling and flood predictions. Instead, the use of a more sophisticated continuous hydrologic model, the TDM, that simulates soil moisture dynamics in two layers of soil, and computes runoff and base flow using some TOPMODEL concepts, does not seem to be advantageous for this alpine basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Flow,frequency, and uncertainty estimation for an extreme historical flood event in the Highlands of Scotland,UK     

David Cameron 《水文研究》2007,21(11):1460-1470

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A steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach for sub‐daily flow disaggregation     

Kim‐Seong Tan  Francis H. S. Chiew  Rodger B. Grayson 《水文研究》2007,21(20):2807-2816

The estimation of sub‐daily flows from daily flood flows is important for many hydrological and hydraulic applications. Flows during flood events often vary significantly within sub‐daily time‐scales, and failure to capture the sub‐daily flood characteristic can result in an underestimation of the instantaneous flood peaks, with possible risk of design failure. It is more common to find a longer record of daily flow series (observed or modelled using daily rainfall series) than sub‐daily flow data. This paper describes a novel approach, known as the steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach, for disaggregating daily flood flows into sub‐daily flows that takes advantage of the strong relationship between the standardized instantaneous flood peak and the standardized daily flood hydrograph rising‐limb steepness index. The strength of this relationship, which is considerably stronger than the relationship between the standardized flood peak and the event flood volume, is shown using data from six rivers flowing into the Gippsland Lakes in southeast Australia. The results indicate that the steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach can be used to disaggregate modelled daily flood flows satisfactorily, but its reliability is dependent on a model's ability to simulate the standardized daily flood hydrograph rising‐limb steepness index and the event flood volume. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于大数据的极端暴雨事件下城市道路交通及人群活动时空响应   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

易嘉伟  王楠  千家乐  马廷  杜云艳  裴韬  周成虎  涂文娜  刘张  王会蒙 《地理学报》2020,75(3):497-508

随着全球气候变化加剧,极端降雨增多,暴雨内涝灾害频发,严重威胁城市的可持续发展。快速掌握暴雨给城市交通及人群的影响,有助于提高灾害应急管理水平和事件响应能力。利用实时动态的交通路况信息和手机定位请求数据,通过一种融合STL时序分解技术与极端学生化偏差统计检验的时间序列异常探测方法,监测和分析暴雨内涝灾害事件中,城市道路交通和人群活动的时空响应特征,并以2018年7月16日发生在北京的极端暴雨事件为例开展实证研究。研究结果显示,在降雨集中的早、晚高峰两个时段（8—9时、18—19时）,市区的拥堵道路数量超出往常水平最高可达150%,异常检测分析显示拥堵道路数量和交通拥堵指数均达到异常甚至极端水平。人群活动的异常响应分析结果显示,暴雨事件引起定位请求量异常升高、异常点增多,且异常点的空间分布与1 h前的降雨量分布存在较高相关性。以上结果不仅证明了大数据及异常检测方法对于快速洞察暴雨事件对城市交通及人群影响的有效性,也为城市暴雨内涝灾害的应急响应与管理提供了新的技术手段。  相似文献   

河道洪水演进数值模拟及其在GIS平台上的可视化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴迪军  孙海燕  黄全义  李静兰 《测绘科学》2009,34(6)

针对公共安全应急平台中灾害预测预警和应急处置的快速反应需求,建立了基于圣维南方程的河道洪水演进的水动力学模型。采用库朗格式的特征线方法对基本方程进行数值求解,得出水位和流量沿河道的时空变化关系,在此基础上进一步研究了基于GIS的洪水演进可视化方法。最后,通过天然河道模拟实例验证了所建模型的可靠性和实用性。  相似文献   

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model for natural channels     

R. Gopakumar  P. P. Mujumdar 《水文研究》2009,23(12):1753-1767

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model (FDFRM) for natural channels is presented, wherein the flood wave can be approximated to a monoclinal wave. This study is based on modification of an earlier published work by the same authors, where the nature of the wave was of gravity type. Momentum equation of the dynamic wave model is replaced by a fuzzy rule based model, while retaining the continuity equation in its complete form. Hence, the FDFRM gets rid of the assumptions associated with the momentum equation. Also, it overcomes the necessity of calculating friction slope (S_f) in flood routing and hence the associated uncertainties are eliminated. The fuzzy rule based model is developed on an equation for wave velocity, which is obtained in terms of discontinuities in the gradient of flow parameters. The channel reach is divided into a number of approximately uniform sub‐reaches. Training set required for development of the fuzzy rule based model for each sub‐reach is obtained from discharge‐area relationship at its mean section. For highly heterogeneous sub‐reaches, optimized fuzzy rule based models are obtained by means of a neuro‐fuzzy algorithm. For demonstration, the FDFRM is applied to flood routing problems in a fictitious channel with single uniform reach, in a fictitious channel with two uniform sub‐reaches and also in a natural channel with a number of approximately uniform sub‐reaches. It is observed that in cases of the fictitious channels, the FDFRM outputs match well with those of an implicit numerical model (INM), which solves the dynamic wave equations using an implicit numerical scheme. For the natural channel, the FDFRM outputs are comparable to those of the HEC‐RAS model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effects of catastrophic flooding on stream biogeochemistry in a headwater stream in Shenandoah National Park,USA     

K.S. Reinhardt  T. Furman 《水文研究》2008,22(18):3759-3771

This study examined the stream chemistry changes in Staunton River (a second‐order headwater stream with an average annual discharge 704 m³ ha^?1 yr^?1, Shenandoah National Park, Virginia) resulting from a catastrophic flood in June 1995. This flood, which followed after 800 mm of rain in a 4‐day period, caused large‐scale debris flows and complete scouring of riparian soils down to bedrock in the lower 2 km of the stream, and has been estimated to be a 1000‐year flood. The flood affected stream chemistry on both short‐ and long‐term time scales. The primary short‐term response was elevations in stream concentration of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, and K⁺ by 59%, 87%, and 49%, respectively, for 6 months immediately following the flood. The long‐term impact of decreased concentration of all base cations and SiO₂ during summer months (8% average) lasted about 2 years. At the episodic time scale, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, and K⁺ flushed from soil sources during pre‐flood storms while Na⁺ and SiO₂ diluted; these trends generally reversed during post‐flood storms for 2 years. Short‐term effects are attributed to the leaching of unconsolidated soil and upturned organic matter that clogged the streambed after the flood. The long‐term and superimposed episodic impacts may have resulted from the loss of riparian soils and vegetation in the flood. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献